Aftershock: A Global Currency Outlook

As markets shift, corporate treasurers and CFOs need to keep up. We talked to Corpay Cross-Border’s currency research team, Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist and Peter Dragicevich, Currency Strategist, APAC about what you can expect in currency markets this quarter.

Volatility has picked up recently, particularly in the bond markets, as the impacts of the most abrupt tightening cycle in a generation continue to show up in the economy and markets. Our currency research team discusses whether things are likely to settle down, or whether the swings we have observed over the past few weeks a taste of things to come in Q2.

Timestamps:

• 0:53 - Volatility has picked up recently, particularly in the bond markets as the impacts of the most abrupt tightening cycle in a generation continue to show up in real economy and markets. Are things likely to settle down or are the swings we have observed over the past few weeks a taste of things to come in Q2?

• 6:02 - With all of this being said, how do you see this backdrop of slowing growth, rising recession risks, combined with high inflation feeding through to the major currencies like the big Dollar, the Euro, etc, over the next couple of months?

• 8:26 - What do you think about the Australian dollar and Asia; China's economy has reopened. Is that going to provide an offset to the unfolding step down in global growth?

• 13:06 - Economic data, and particularly labour demand, has so far been resilient this year in Canada. How do you think conditions will evolve in the coming months, and how might that impact the BoC's current policy path?

• 16:39 - Over to Japan; a new governor is taking charge of the Bank of Japan in early April. How do you think BoJ policy will evolve from here, and what are the implications for the JPY and broader markets?

• 20:55 - The world economy is going through quite an adjustment, obviously. The battle against inflation continues to rage, but as we all know, markets can often end up surprising when everybody is thinking the same thing. What could be some of these potential surprises that could catch markets off guard over the coming months?

Note: The opinions expressed on FX in Focus News & Views are those of the speakers only, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Corpay or FLEETCOR Technologies Inc. 

Cross-Border